Blue Monday DAX

Blue Monday DAX

Hi guys,

here is another DAX trading idea. It is very simple and generates only few trades but it seems very profitable if it happens.
Have fun
Reiner

 

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Risk disclosure:

No information on this site is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading may expose you to risk of loss greater than your deposits and is only suitable for experienced investors who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk.

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  1. Doctrading • 05/22/2016 #

    I only have 1 trade for this backtest… where is the bug ?
    Anyway, thanks for sharing.

  2. Doctrading • 05/22/2016 #

     
    Oh, sorry, it works fine !
    Few signals, but very performing since 2015.
    For end 2013 and 2014, no gain.
    It’s an interesting concept.

  3. Andres • 05/22/2016 #

    Very, very interesting and simple strategy. Many times it’s only neccesary see what happened day by day on the markets instead search and search complicated indicators.
    Thanks for share.
    Andrés.

  4. CKW • 05/22/2016 #

    Hi Reiner,
    Thanks for sharing! I have seen this trend quite often on blue Monday as your strategy, and also the next day (Tuesday) on same time very often goes opposite!!!
    So, I did some modification based on your code:

    Decrease CloseDiff to increase entry %
    Shorten the exit time
    Add in similar strategy on Tuesday but Sellshort

    Results is not bad too
    // MonTue DAX 5m

    // Code-Parameter
    DEFPARAM FlatAfter = 095500

    // trading window
    ONCE BuyTime = 085500
    ONCE SellTime = 093500

    ONCE UCloseDiff = 30
    ONCE DCloseDiff = 0

    ONCE PositionSize = 5
    ONCE sl = 50

    // Long all in, if it\'s Monday and the market is 30 points higher
    IF Not LongOnMarket AND Time = BuyTime AND (CurrentDayOfWeek = 1) THEN
    Diff = close - DClose(1)
    IF Diff > UCloseDiff THEN
    Buy PositionSize CONTRACT AT MARKET
    ENDIF
    ENDIF

    // Short all in, if it\'s Tuesday and the market is 30 points lower
    IF Not ShortOnMarket AND Time = BuyTime AND (CurrentDayOfWeek = 2) THEN
    Diff = close - DClose(1)
    IF Diff < DCloseDiff THEN
    Sellshort PositionSize CONTRACT AT MARKET
    ENDIF
    ENDIF

    // exit position
    IF LongOnMarket AND Time = SellTime THEN
    SELL AT MARKET
    ENDIF

    IF ShortOnMarket AND Time = SellTime THEN
    exitshort AT MARKET
    ENDIF

    // stop
    SET STOP pLOSS sl

     
     
     
     

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      Hi CKW,
      Thanks for your feedback. I have observed this behavior as well. The best rules are so simple.
      regards
      Reiner

  5. Bandido • 05/22/2016 #

    It seems very good also with cac40, and quite good with ftse100.
    Thank you!

  6. Kenneth Kvistad • 05/22/2016 #

    Any new updates or news about this strategy?

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      Hi Kenneth,
      Sorry for the late answer.
      I have tested this little strategy with 200.000 candles and updated the parameters. I know some crazy guys trading this little beauty and make a lot money last week. Please find the code below:
      // Blue Monday DAX

      // Code-Parameter
      DEFPARAM FlatAfter = 093500

      // trading window
      ONCE BuyTime = 85500
      ONCE SellTime = 93500

      ONCE CloseDiff = 50

      ONCE PositionSize = 25
      ONCE sl = 50

      // Long all in, if it\'s Monday and the market is 50 points higher
      IF Not LongOnMarket AND Time = BuyTime AND (CurrentDayOfWeek = 1) THEN
      Diff = close - DClose(1) // with Sunday quotes
      IF Diff > CloseDiff THEN
      BUY PositionSize CONTRACT AT MARKET
      ENDIF
      ENDIF

      // exit position
      IF LongOnMarket AND Time = SellTime THEN
      SELL AT MARKET
      ENDIF

      // stop
      SET STOP pLOSS sl

      best, Reiner

  7. mamio • 05/22/2016 #

    Hi,
    I only have one trade:
    25 contracts @10505,3 on 5th december 2016.
    What I am doing wrong?
    Regards!
     

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      Hi mamio,
      Sorry for the late answer.
      This strategy provides only few but very profitable trades. To see all trades you have to extend the number of 5M candles to the maximum possible value 100.000 or 200.000 for PRT premium.
      Best, Reiner

  8. morgan89 • 05/22/2016 #

    Bonjour Reiner,
    Merci pour la stratégie. Les résultats sont vraiment bons.Pour un compte de 10 000€, la taille de position est de 25. J’imagine que c’est un mini lot donc 25€/pips. Ce n’est pas trop ?Bonne journée

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      Bonjour morgan89,
      You can trade this idea with every size that fit to your account size. This signal isn’t very frequent but when it happens the probability to make money with it is very high. I agree 10k is to small for a full contract.
      Best, Reiner

  9. morgan89 • 05/22/2016 #

    Bonjour,
    Je voudrai savoir comment réinvestir les gains avec cette stratégie svp ?
    J’ai essayé  ONCE PositionSize = 25 + strategyprofit
    Mais ca ne fonctionne pas 🙂
    Merci de votre aide

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      // smart position sizing
      Capital = 10000
      Risk = 0.1
      StopCoefficient = 75
      equity = Capital + StrategyProfit
      maxrisk = round(equity * Risk)
      PositionSize = MAX(10, abs(round((maxrisk / StopCoefficient) / PointValue)))

       

  10. morgan89 • 05/22/2016 #

    Merci Reiner,Ca fonctionne parfaitement.Je ne comprends pas à quoi correspond StopCoefficient
    De même,  MAX(10,........
    Cela multiplie par 10 la valeur de abs()  ?

    • Reiner • 05/22/2016 #

      you’ll find more details here:
      https://www.prorealcode.com/blog/learning/money-management-prorealtime-code/
      With the MAX-statement you can determine a minimum position size in that example the size is always 10 as long the money management algo delivers a higher value then 10
       

  11. morgan89 • 05/22/2016 #

    La formule est légèrement différente.
    C’est normal ?
    StopLoss = 10 // Could be our variable X
    PositionSize = abs(round((maxrisk/StopLoss)/PointValue)*pipsize)

  12. danver34 • 05/22/2016 #

    is the Monday strategy based on some kind of trade gap strategy ?
     

  13. ALZ • 05/22/2016 #

    Hi Everybody
    Sure.. this strategy works too with CAC40 for example,
    Just necessary to adapt time, diff, & days which are specifics for each market..

    About this strategy, i’m puzzled because i think there is maybe another possibility to the code concerning the exit position.. i’m currently checking ..

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