Hello Nicolas,

let me try to explain in a different way what this is supposed to be.

I consider it to be more of a universal tool for statistical analysis than an actual indicator or even a handicapped backtest. There is a good result (the condition has been meet after X days) and the corresponding bad result. If I look at todays price chart and ask myself: What is the right side of this market?” the binprob variable can provide an easy insight into the patterns just observed on the chart.

For example:

If the price crosses over the Supersmoother what is the probability that the price will (still) be above the indicator in 1,2,3,4,5..X days? If I want to enter a market and the price has been above the indicator for 6 days already does this mean I could also wait for 3-4 days more and hope for a pullback with a 70-80% probability? Thus telling me in which direction I should enter and when a good moment could be comming up?

The condition to be checked (price above the supersmoother) can easily be adapted to many different needs. In return this indicator can provide a probability distribution for the request.

Another example are the many forum posts asking for a exit condition after 3 bars. Why 3 bars and not five? The return function can provide an insight into the expected return for every following day.

I hope this helps you a bit better to understand where this is going.

In an optimal world those results could be exported into a spreadsheet 🙂 Anyways in my view it is a little swiss army knife and surely think that other users can profit from this, too.