Hi All
Very interesting comments, I think you certainly have to back test to 3 – 4 years, 6 months is no where near enough. But saying that I have an automated system in operation now for nearly 3 months which certainly is not performing as per my back tests. Typical really and that’s what makes trading so difficult : We do not know what tomorrow holds.
I was very interested in Vonasi’s comments about trend following major indices (which I do – the DAX to be precise) and the change in market structure. He was saying that his EStop got hit and he decided to wait on the sidelines. I also have noticed this, when I back tested my ES was hit just over once a month this was over a nearly 2 year period. And what happened when I started live trading ? It is getting hit 4 times a month, sometimes 5 ! The market is in a very bad sideways and volatile state at present (the DAX index) …trend following right now is very difficult. But you cannot ‘come out’ of your system and wait on the sidelines, because if you do when that big trend comes along that pays off all your losses, guess what ? you are NOT on it ! Now you have a problem. Psychologically its huge.
My opinion is that the market is like this because of geo-politics but that cannot affect my system which must be left to ‘run’. I think the market will revert again to its ‘normality’ as regards trends but for now it s what it is. Difficult game, trading.
If you trade long only
try to avoid the summer
this is dax daily long only (june,july,august)
