Hi Vonasi and all,

When I say ‘normality’ on the DAX for me that means the trends continuing as they have for the last say 5 years – that’s enough data for me. I cannot see the point in going back to the 90’s…of course all indexes go up, down and sideways – that’s a given. The DAX has been very volatile when compared to the past, just since Feb of this year. I do believe this is likely a ‘blip’ but how long that blip will last is the big question. I am still catching the trends but gains are eroded by the volatility being there, causing my stop to get hit constantly, even though it is ‘far away’. I personally do not pick months of the year to trade or for that matter ‘long’ only positions. I am not saying it cant work, but its too ‘picky’ for me and not traditional trend following as it were. For example what happens if you go long only and the market tanks, like Feb 6-7th 2018 (where the DAX fell by nearly 1000 pts in under 24 hours) ? Again you are not on that massive move !

As for the comments above about trading how the market is ‘now’ – I mean when is it a ‘now’ ? Tell me ….When you react to the ‘now’ / recent only events you must by definition of missed the change, then what happens if you change then the market reverts back to how it was !? For me you must look at historical data to put the probabilities on your side otherwise you are curve fitting and will ‘system hop’ ..

take care all.