20 years of trading My 2-cents
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I belive you can flip a coin and make money, it´s all upp to your monymangement and mental strenght .
In other words, there are thousands of ways to approach the market and all works if you are disciplined and follow your system.
The difficult part is not to get decent buy or sell signals. The difficult part is to find a way of trading that suits you and your personality and
mentally with losing trades , max drawdowns , working hours, family etc.As you know the coin has two sides and thats the case in everything, i know if i make only 5-10 trades a year i would make much more money then
like know when i make 2-6 trades a day! But i´m to bored because when you are in a trade you are interested to se how it goes .It´s like watching paint dry
and when you are not in a trade you even then wants to keep up to see when and if a new trade develops etc.For people that dont have been watching an computer screen 10 hours a day for last 20 years, they don´t understand and think i´m stupid not
to look for 6 trades a year, make money and have time to travel and be with your kids. etc. But that dosen´t suit me!I think backtesting can be a way of gaining certain knowledge that can help to choose how often you want to be in the market, how many trades a
day, week, month and years would be fine and finding a risk vs reward that suits you and how much you can afford to loose without feeling bad
when sleeping etc.There is no secrets , there is no trader or indicator that can tell you at 100% what will happen tomorrow or next hour but like in sports betting and
horses you can look for and create a system that gives you best possible edge and risk vs reward. With good dicipline and MM yo will win.With small timeframes you get more noice but when right you came in at a bottom price and can use small stops, the bad thing is many false
signals with many small losses . With bigger timeframes you get less noice and less false signals but need bigger stops , you will have more winning
trades but when losing it hurts more at the time. It dosen´t matter wich timeframe , indicator of filter you use. They will all find some kind of problems
when trend is shifting or when there is no trend at all.Also when you start a trading system for real, wait for best possible moment. Don´t just jump in at the market because it´s fun. Wait until the
market i really oversold and take next buy signal in order to get a good start so the max drawdown dosen´t happen at once.I think that you should only take trades with the trend. You need a filter from an much higer timeframe (Daily) then the one you get the
buy/sell signals from (30min). Next step is to wait for overbougth in downtrend or oversold in up trend in an medium timeframe (2 hours).
When you take the trade you need a quite generous stop and when/if the trade goes your way then don´t be greedy . Take a smaller profit then
the normal max developing trade can give you. Perhaps use ATR to se how much it normally moves. This is how i trade but i combine it with
pending orders at recently pivot/turning points .Example: If Daily is trending up, 2 hours stoch is under -50 and the price is nearby an earlier
pivot/turning point you buy and place stop way under the recent resistance then you have best possible RR and then still sometimes you get
it wrong 🙂
Im here and want to get my systems on code because i want to be a better familly father but also because the only advatages i can see with autotrading
is that the computer dosen´t care if BOE,BOJ, FED is speaking or if the time is 04.30 in the morning etc. My problem is that i overtrade because
im bored and it´s fun. I feel better with a loss then not been in the market at all. So im willing to give some of my profits away to the market in
order to be fully automatic and more free! I´m sure there is not a system that can replace a developed experience and feel for the market combined
with indicaters and price reading but one have to sacrifice something.Most traders lose money and yet it´s quite simple if you don´t do to much curve fitting and are not to greedy. Keep it simple, have faith, wait
for the right moment wich can be weeks from now.Below a simple investment code using normal MA20 vs MA50 in weekly timeframe. If
you followed it on DAX30 and buy one contract since 1996 (7 trades, 1 Loss, +15000 points ) since: 2000 (5 trades, 0 loss +12000 points)
since: 2004 (4 trades, 0 loss + 10000 points) since: 2009 (3 trades, 0 loss + 7000 points)One point/contract is 25 eur so profit between 375.000 EUR to 175.000 EUR why are we making everything so hard?
123456789101112131415161718192021//Curre 2016-08-06 Boring Invest Weekly MA 20/50// Definition of code parametersDEFPARAM CumulateOrders = False // Cumulating positions deactivated// Conditions to enter long positionsindicator1 = Average[20](close)indicator2 = Average[50](close)c1 = (indicator1 CROSSES OVER indicator2)IF c1 THENBUY 1 CONTRACT AT MARKETENDIF// Conditions to exit long positionsindicator3 = Average[20](close)indicator4 = Average[50](close)c2 = (indicator3 CROSSES UNDER indicator4)IF c2 THENSELL AT MARKET2 users thanked author for this post.
Hi Kasper,
It took me app. 5-6 years to figure out what i had red in different books between 98-03 , which is very tru. Less is more and keep it simple!
My account was nearly wiped out at 3 different occasions between those years. On all occasions it was lack of dicipline , lack of patience and
lack of stops. When i figure out that there is no secrets or holy grails i asked my self – What are you afraid of ? And since then i decided that
i may as well loose money following my thoughts rater then guessing the future every day or even worse listing to other traders/gurus or
news people. And since then i´ve been able to feed my family from trading.Don´t give up but be patince and try to decide wich instrument, idicies or stocks you want to learn about and try to read the indicators, price
action and behavior of one ore a couple of indices. Then you will better feel wich indicators to use and at wich levels/data you could expect
a turning point/buy signal. I think that an basic ideá / system that is not to much curvefitted but with filters are working on several different
indicies and timeframes but they will perform with a big difference. I use app. The same ideá on three different indices but i have to adapt my
approach and stops. S&P is unpredictable, DAX is easier to read but with big spikes and overtrades support/recistance. The swedish OMXS30 is
calmer and feels safer but many times boring and demands to much patience.I prefer DAX because it follows more often a certain pattern and there is great action many days. I also have a sense of DAX lagging but when
it reacts it comes with power.Brgds/ Curre
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Hi,
Golden Cross in years gone by may have been a reasonable entry condition. This is less the today case especially with an index or currency pair. You are competing against machines which means that by the time you see the GX on your your chart, other systems are taking their first profits and hitting their soft targets. Using this condition for an entry means you’ll likely be in draw-down for a large amount of time because you are “late to the party”. With increased volatility the large price-to MA distance upon GX can mean you’re missing fair value by a significant degree. If you are using this system then it often pays to wait for the profit taking and get in at fair value if the price-MA distance is large.
GX is a lagging confirmation signal comprised of not 1 but 2 lagging indicators. It does have its uses. It might support staying in a position that you already have; it’s also good for confirming a stop loss scenario (which is a contributing factor to why you see a price revisit to the longer term MA straight after the MA cross happens).
The question to ask is: What combination of indicators in lower time-frames will suggest a high potential GX scenario in the time-frame above? Ideally you want to be “in” before the cross happens and risk-free after it occurs. Explore non-temporal resolutions with GX setups to get a deep understanding of what the “machines” see.
Hope this helps
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