Anybody else almost scared to go Long?

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 141 total)
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  • 04/03/2025 at 6:20 PM #245559
    GraHal

    See attached  … price seems almost to be hanging off a precipice on DJI, similar on other Indices?

    I’m almost scared to go Long, but Shorts are not easy / predictable either?

    Welcome to the discussion with any thoughts or comments?

    04/03/2025 at 7:28 PM #245561
    GraHal

    I’m trying US Crude (as alternative to DJI etc) looks to have several hundred points movement per day (on the ‘x100 UK Spread Bet Scale‘) but nowhere near as frenetic as DJI.

    Might even try some of my Algos on US Crude also! 🙂

    04/03/2025 at 10:41 PM #245564
    Snålänningen

    Indeed its a bit scary times now! However, most of my long algos only enter when the market have a bit of long momentum – so not much of action right now which feels good in my stomage. 🙂

    04/03/2025 at 10:42 PM #245565
    LucasBest
    GraHal wrote:

    See attached … price seems almost to be hanging off a precipice on DJI, similar on other Indices?

    I’m almost scared to go Long, but Shorts are not easy / predictable either?

    Welcome to the discussion with any thoughts or comments?

    Either Trump is stupid, either he wants to scare everyone and thus make indices krach allowing him and his close billionaire’s friends to buy stocks much cheaper… Is it done on purpose or is he dumb?

    04/04/2025 at 8:38 AM #245577
    Iván

    I don’t think Trump is dumb at all… It’s a different matter whether what he does is right or wrong, which of course I’m not going to get into.

    04/04/2025 at 9:31 AM #245581
    justisan

    …what equity markets are doing since february or so has definetely to do with trump&co politics – which I think basically kind of removed for businesses lot of the base for longer term planning and earning estimations. nobody knows “what’s next”. one day putting tarrifs on few countries, few days later cancelling them, then again on/off, then putting tarrifs on whole world. nobody knows which countries and how will react on them and so on and so on. and so investors/traders also don’t find a consensus, and therefore markets a quite terrible, all moves are very short living, intraday trends erratic. “scared” to go long? I would not say that. but these are very hard times, for both sides, long and short. as an algo trader one still has to stick to the systems, let them take all the trades systems triggers. but to reduce the positions might be not bad idea. the only big question will then still remain – when/under which conditions to increase the positions again 😀

    cheers

    justisan

    04/04/2025 at 11:26 AM #245588
    justisan

    watching current/today’s equity market action I think investors maybe found now the direction which is “throw all your stocks out of the window!”

    😀

    04/05/2025 at 8:24 AM #245607
    LucasBest

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlbiuj1olmY

    04/05/2025 at 8:39 AM #245608
    PeterSt

    Here’s explained what the guy in the Bloomberg video (post from Lucas) talks about.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWhv-06DNjE

     

    Iván wrote:

    I don’t think Trump is dumb at all… It’s a different matter whether what he does is right or wrong, which of course I’m not going to get into.

    He’s a total lunatic.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    avatar GraHal
    04/05/2025 at 9:06 AM #245609
    GraHal

    Video linked in Peter’s post gives a succinct explanation as to the maths behind the % figures for Tariffs.

    Also shows up where they try and make the formula appear more complext than it actually is!

    I keep thinking … is Trump going to reverse it all next week / sometime soon?

    .

    04/05/2025 at 2:10 PM #245610
    PeterSt
    GraHal wrote:

    I keep thinking … is Trump going to reverse it all next week / sometime soon?

    This was my definitive idea during his first term. This idea back then grew upon what you saw regularly happening – say on a weekly basis.
    This is different.

    There is no logic at all in anything of what he’s doing. And talking about reversing … The damage of what has been done on behalf of the Doge project – no matter it was Musk executing it (now on premature leave), can not be reversed. If people hence departments have gone, they have gone and won’t return. If university students are pestered out, they end up over here (Europe) and they won’t return.

    04/05/2025 at 2:23 PM #245611
    PeterSt
    justisan wrote:

    watching current/today’s equity market action I think investors maybe found now the direction which is “throw all your stocks out of the window!”

    😀

    This is IMO not really what is happening. I mean, that would come along with moving to other assets. So Yes, stocks out of the window, but no replacement. The money starts to vaporize …
    At this moment the following link is not reflecting 100% what I am saying, but it easily goes the direction of what I say already :

    https://www.ft.com/content/8ba439ec-297c-4372-ba45-37e9d7fd1771

    04/05/2025 at 4:35 PM #245613
    GraHal
    GraHal wrote:

    is Trump going to reverse it all next week / sometime soon?

    I was only referring to reversal of the Tariffs.

    04/05/2025 at 5:01 PM #245614
    LucasBest
    GraHal wrote:
    GraHal wrote:

    is Trump going to reverse it all next week / sometime soon?

    I was only referring to reversal of the Tariffs.

    He is not going to reverse tariffs so fast, or any time soon as long as other countries does not accept what he wants them to…
    The tarrifs are meant to put pressure on other countries and his plan (MAGA plan) rely on several economic and geopolitics thinking that may not be true at the end of the day… Look at this video that is explaining what is the MAGA plan and how they expect to : “having your cake and eating it too” (having a strong dollar and no deindustrialization and even reindustrialization…).
    They know this will temporarily hurt the world economy, increase inflation, and make the stocks crash while they are not sure that their plan will work… But they don’t care, because even if it does not work, they will be able to buy the stocks cheaper!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA

    In my point of view this crazy plan has no chance to work but it will hurt the world’s economy badly and may lead to the 3rd world war…

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    avatar GraHal
    04/05/2025 at 8:24 PM #245616
    THE TRADER

    The indexes remain bullish in the medium-long term.

    It’s simply a correction to the 2023-2024 bullish trend.

    Throughout April, the indices will rise again.

    Perhaps the Nasdaq will reach the 16,500 area, not lower.

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