Are we going sideways or down?

• 12/11/2018 at 10:04 PM #86901
  Vonasi

  I wrote an indicator (very simple) that counts the number of closes in the last 52 weeks that were below the low 52 weeks ago.

  a = summation[52](close < low[51]) return a

  1 2 3

  a = summation[52](close < low[51])   return a

  It is interesting to see what happened after every time that has happened in the past on the SP500.

  

  I think the chance of a major crash is less than in the past due to all the fail safes now in place on the markets to prevent shorting frenzy crashes – but if today the SP500 closes below the low of this week one year ago then we might be in for a choppy ride (mean reversal trades only!) Since the 2008 crash there has been a slight blip in 2011 to 2013 (fail safes working?) and a sideways choppy ride around the Brexit referendum and Trump election but no crash. My guess is a choppy volatile ride and not a crash to come – what’s yours?

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  Vonasi

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  12/11/2018 at 11:10 PM #86907
  stefou102

  The hammer from yesterday on DJI on a support zone hasn’t been confirmed today, increasing greatly chance we broke the support at closing either tomorrow or day after in my view. More safe are in place, and we saw in Europe that breaking weekly support can be done orderly. That doesn’t mean we can’t lose 5-10% in a week, which will then offer nice opportunities, especially in EU where a lot of companies are now rather cheap

  

  stefou102

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  12/12/2018 at 11:03 AM #86936
  jebus89

  Personally as a general opinion i dont think we’re going into a major bear market here.. Yes it has been crazy volatile but other than trump and the global debt risk, i dont see any super major crisis in the near future. Of course, noone does until the crises is there 😀

   

  I think if trump is going to get impeached then its gonna be big trouble. Regarding debt crises, im not smart enough to say wether or not its in full crises mode or if its “just the normal crises level” lol.. The big volatility is creating alot of opportunities and a lot of fake signals tho hehe.

  But for long term investing i am buying stocks on the cheap atm.. not going all in on anything.

  

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  12/12/2018 at 11:41 AM #86943
  TempusFugit

  I don´t like to be devil´s advocate here but before every mayor crisis there have been always saying: “this time is different”. Maybe it is but I think the past is the best predictor of the future so I think it´s quite possible a mayor crash in the near future, probably not in a few months but in second half of 2019 or so. I hope I am wrong though

  

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