First of all, I’m glad to have launched this debate
JS wrote : How do you describe this relation between the profit and stock movements?
Every days you can notice that the stocks movement is mainly due to the market psychology effects ( a lot of books is dealing with this subject)
Another example is the Oder Blocks where Institutionals (banks ….) create large price movements that seem unpredictable … in order to make profits (Iván has recently created robust OB indicators)
If you looks at the distribution of a stocks curve , you will notice the distribution shape varies a lot according to the number of bars. Good luck to make a statistics that lead to make a robust probability.