Gains Eroded in the Past Few Weeks?

Forums ProRealTime English forum General trading discussions Gains Eroded in the Past Few Weeks?

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 28 total)
  • #231899

    Anybody elses’s Algo performance been decimated in the past few weeks?

    My Accounts are typically down 25% … Demo I am glad to say! 🙂

    If you are experiencing the same as me … what can we learn from this??

    #231906

    If you are up, down or flat in the last 4 weeks or so, just say by what % / percentage roughly so I know if my Algo performance is typical or exceptional?

    #231914

    The same for me. I trade DAX and it’s been like a swing since quite some time now, both Demo and Real accounts! 🙁
    They multiple times have gone down around 20%, then up again almost the same % and so on… a couple of times.

     

     

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #231921

    A lot has been going on in the last 3 weeks… my longonly bots have all been with increasing profits until April 2nd, 2024. The last trade exit on April 2nd was a loss and from then on all bots were on the sidelines, i.e. without trades. In accordance with the rules, some re-entered the market yesterday in the long direction. These bots are trend followers and had almost no loss, they just waited. So… the bots that use long and short have partly torn a big hole in the last 3 weeks. A big month of losses. My mean reversion bots all look similar to the longonly trend followers. They are currently waiting for the first downswing after yesterday’s breakout. A smart person once said “Back and forth, empties your pockets.” What does that tell us? Onlylong seems to be the best alternative… I say that because my shorts have not been able to make a single euro of profit in the last few weeks.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #231925

    The last exit was on April 4th. For the sake of accuracy.

    #231936

    My question to myself would be : and what is the reference ? Is it one year ago ? is it March 20, 2024 ?
    So with this in mind, this is my take :

    What you see below starts at Jan 4, 2024, just because it is there where I let go AutoTrading on IB (what you see is from IB indeed). The highest peak is at trade 460. This is on April 12.
    If I take that as the reference for the max increase since Jan 4, then we could state that at 1. The last trade in there (from yesterday) is is then at 0.6897. Thus, 69% left of the max gain in that period. If we let these figures speak, then we could attest that the 1 is 100K and thus the remaining gain is 69K. And Yes, that is 31K loss. What is is in real money you will never know, unless I tell. 🙂

     

    My Accounts are typically down 25% …

    It is there where we should be careful. My account (the one I showed) is not 25% down at all. And not 31% either. I could be a matter of wording, but this is exactly why I put the intro like I did;
    In trading all tells nothing when looked at in the short term. But what period to look at then ? I coincidentally could use the “start of autotrading for IB”.  But then again it does not tell nothing much really because in January I had maybe 3 or 4 different instruments running with AutoTrading, while right now it is 13 (all different because it’s IB). New Instruments and Systems (algos) are always under trial. They always fail at first. This is all incorporated. Want to see it ? look at the 2nd picture. Same account, now showing from Jan 4, 2023. You could say that is all misery, but it is all trial and error. The same happens today still. But today it is in the mid of now working systems. 3 of them still fail. They are in for observation, but they fail and lose money. Fail means : a. unexpected broker issues and b. not the best strategy after all.

     

    Ad b.:

    This is mainly phoentzs thing;
    Once you have things running, and you start to run more of them, you dive into the global strategy stuff. This is not only about Long Only (and the like) but merely about market influences like when all goes down, Gold may go up. So have Gold too. However, there is a lot to learn when this is about AutoTrading, because we can’t play out strategies like “Stocks go down so let’s do some Gold” (Mr. ProRealTime, WHEN can we finally do that ?!?). So this means both are in, and it’s in the lap of the Gods what happens when. I can tell you : 4-5-6 weeks ago, Gold went as good as Stocks did. Should not be but was so. Then 1-2-3 weeks ago (from of beginning of April) Stocks were Down and Gold was still up. I can’t even tell what would have happened with the daily losses when Gold would not have been there. Then came 3 days ago and all was down. Hmm … not good. And mind you, I am not the guy who starts to throw out AutoTrading Systems. Never. Then came two days ago and all was up and the profit was equal to the loss of the day before (better think “huge” as in : did not happen before like this). So then I decided that I could have too many systems running, all going in the same direction at times. And since then I am thinking of a next global strategy :

    Make more profit per trade.

    Believe it or not, but that is a strategy too.
    The third picture shows this. This one started at April 1 (no joke) and it performed relatively very well. How ? because it explicitly makes use of what you see happening in the 4th picture. Think Long only but Enter lower than the previous Exit. This is not easy to accomplish and this is a first one where I could apply this.
    The whole of this week I am sitting down to make this a general “algo” but a lack of time or focus withheld me from it so far. On my rough estimate my mentioned 31% loss should turn into maybe 10%. But mind you, the absolute losses will be the same, but because a winning trade wins more, the relative loss will be smaller.

    “Ha ha” you could say, but, if you are Long only, how to turn that into better than Buy and Hold eh ? So this is what I have been looking at since January with all going good and even better. It can’t be, you know. And it couldn’t.
    Oh wait, it is still 69% vs 31%. So it could. But wait for the next cruise missile and be prepared (meaning : make more profit to cover for the upcoming losses – this really *is* my global strategy and thinking).

    My advice is indirectly the same as phoentzs’ : create Strategies around Long Only. This really really implies completely different thinking, especially because it allows for a good focus (you’ll really know what you head for). And indeed, I too can’t make any strategy work with Short incorporated or even Short only in “bad times” (I could re-apply it to the past 3 weeks, but I am confident nothing much will come from it).

    I hope you all appreciate this AutoTrading as the best hobby there is. I know I do.
    🙂

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #231943
    Wim

    April was good for one of my embryonic strategies on an IG demo account, a plus of roughly 150 unitary points. It’s a heavy betting algo, requiring a winrate above 92% to be profitable. On strong directional days it takes numerous positions with little profits. On ranging days it might take a full or partial stop loss. The algo got cancelled by IG a number of times. That happens always close to 9h00 with error message that an order was launched with a too small SL distance. Well, that cannot be the reason, the algo uses a fixed SL distance of 100 (!) points on the DAX, no way close to the minimum distance required by IG.
    Another algo trading the Nasdaq on IG real account, was neutral in april, slightly positive since start end of february. So I guess it is possible to not go down in april.
    Some other experimental algos on demo are not yet performing, still just in the “explorative” phase.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #231946

    This month, although it has been decidedly difficult for some algorithms, is positive….not by much but around €1,000, but personally, even if the initial request was in the last few weeks, we should see at least in the last three or better six months…. in 2 or 3 weeks you can even lose money, certainly a 25% loss is a lot.

    Mauro T. “Algorithm System”

     

    #240408

    If you are up, down or flat in the last 4 weeks or so, just say by what % / percentage roughly so I know if my Algo performance is typical or exceptional?

    Problem is, there is no easy way directly on PRT to do such an Analysis across dozens of Algo’s?

    I have requested months ago, via a Suggestion to PRT, that a column be added to the ProOrder Running / Not Running Window which shows Average Gain / Loss and also number of Trades.  I am hoping my Suggestion will appears in V13??

    Anyway, back to the main purpose of this post … How have your Algo’s performed over the past few weeks?

    I’ll start by saying … lots of mine have been decimated! 🙁

    #240458

    I have been in a drawdown since summer. It have been some tough months. ATH in summer my account was about 75% up YTD, now it is around 40% after a good start of November.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #240459

    Unfortunately, decidedly bad.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #240462

    Hi Graal, it depends on what you mean by last weeks….2-6-12 weeks.

    Mauro T. “Algorithm System”

    #240466

    You could define your own period, even from summertime.

    I opened Detailed Reports (a tedious task for dozens of Algo’s) and I noted that a few of mine did really well last week, an example is attached.

    Wouldn’t it be great if our preferred choice of stats could be included as a column in the ProOrder AutoTrading Running / Not Running  window … for example – Last Week’s Gain / Loss??

    I will Suggest above to PRT.

    #240469

    Here I put the detailed report of those I use, this month, the current quarter (October and November) and the previous quarter.
    Only the Dax had in the current quarter is in loss, the others are doing well.
    It should be considered that the previous month, the American elections have influenced some algorithms, but already in the medium term they are behaving well.


    Bye

    Mauro T. “Algorithm System”

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #240473

    I think the interesting time has been since October…
    My trend strategies have all been pointing upwards to date. Depending on the trend filter, there was a relatively small loss in the decline after Trump’s election. My scalpers suffered a greater loss after the election than they gained before the election. My mean reversions suffered a fairly high loss after the election. All in all, a profit across all strategies in November so far.
    As I said, all long strategies on SP500 and Nasdaq.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 28 total)

Create your free account now and post your request to benefit from the help of the community
Register or Login