Hello from The Netherlands

• 12/20/2019 at 7:11 PM #115317
  J.

  Hi there, I am a trader and software engineer from The Netherlands. I’ve been interested in the financial markets since I was 15 years old and I always wanted to learn how to trade. I thought myself a lot about trading over the years and I ultimately decided to focus on the Forex markets, because of the large and stable, but volatile markets. I’m now combining the knowledge I gathered from the Forex markets and my coding skills to back test and forward test strategies I came up with.

  I must say I’m really liking the ProRealTime system and the easy programming interface it provides. Thanks to this great system I’ve already discarded many strategies that seemed nice, but don’t work at all. From there on out I’ve been able to create new strategies that were better.

  Unfortunately not a lot of people (nobody) I know are interested in Forex or the financial markets, so I like to read this forum and other articles daily to expand my knowledge and connect with like-minded people.

  I’ll try to contribute to this forum as much as I can too.

   

  

  J.

  Participant

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  12/20/2019 at 7:31 PM #115321
  robertogozzi

  Hi,

  welcome aboard!

  As I replied to another post of yours, optimization of strategies is like a barrier… you need to train to jump over it!

  When you optimize a strategy you set parameters according to the past… you bend past market events to suit your expectations, but the future can’t be foretold and though the market will ALWAYS be higher highs or lower lows or ranging, they will NEVER occur exactly the way they occurred before, so your overoptimized strategies will have to face a market that behaves differently from the past, thus making you lose money.

  Have fun learning and trading!

   

  1 user thanked author for this post.

  J.

  

  robertogozzi

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  12/20/2019 at 8:14 PM #115327
  J.

  Thank you Robert, I take your advice to heart and I saw a post about the survivorship bias that is very interesting too. It’s only natural for a strategy to not ALWAYS work, I’ve thought about it a lot and I’ve been wondering, if a strategy would work under ANY circumstance, making variable profits, but would always turn out profitable, would that almost automatically mean that particular strategy would need to have a win rate of 100% always? Because if you back test a strategy for 2 years with a win rate of even 90%, if the circumstances change and the same pattern of the losing 10% keeps occurring more often in the following year, that could make your strategy a loser.

  But that’s what you’re trying to say too right? Past data does not give an indication of the future, we can’t predict the future, we can only trade a strategy based on the assumption that the market won’t change drastically. Ultimately the goal is to not blow up your account in times you’re not profitable.

  

  J.

  Participant

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  12/21/2019 at 9:36 AM #115336
  Nicolas

  Hi,  welcome in! We are always glad to count on new members willing to participate! 😉

  You should investigate the forums for topics about: robustness,   optimization,  over-optimization,  walk forward,  monte carlo,  overfitting, ..

   

  

  Nicolas

  Keymaster

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