How to Add Options Probabilities
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- This topic has 51 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 8 months ago by
Nicolas.
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01/19/2022 at 9:37 PM #18598001/19/2022 at 9:40 PM #18598201/19/2022 at 9:48 PM #18598501/19/2022 at 9:54 PM #18598701/19/2022 at 10:25 PM #18598901/19/2022 at 11:14 PM #185995
Volatility: 17%
Days to expiration: 21
Current price: 35805
With a volatility of 17% and after 21 days the price difference is: 35805 x 0,17 x SquareRoot(21 / 365) = 1460
Difference between current and (upper) target price: 37080 – 35805 = 1275
Difference between current and (lower) target price: 35805 – 34000 = 1805
1275 / 1460 = 0,87 cumulative distribution = 80%
1805 / 1460 = 1,24 cumulative distribution = 89%
07/26/2024 at 7:12 AM #235799Some of the calculation statistics discussed in this topic will be making their way into the all-new options module (still a work in progress) that will be embedded in version 13 of ProRealTime. Stay tuned for more updates! 😉
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