how to automate a successful manual system

nonetheless · Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:35:32 +0000

I have been day trading for about 10 years and in that time I have tried and dismissed countless systems, some of them ridiculously complicated. Since the beginning of this year I have settled on a system that is simplicity itself and, day after day, week after week, it literally never fails. I am posting it here with 2 purposes; one is to share it with anyone who might find it useful – but also to set a challenge to anyone who can successfully automate it. I live in London and trade the FTSE 100 but there’s no reason this shouldn’t work on other indices if you prefer. I use a 2 minute chart with 2 indicators: HULL 13 and HULL 34 (Fibonacci magic). In a nutshell, when the 13 turns up I go long, and short when it turns down. Simple as that. The HULL 34 is there as an approximation of what is happening at the 5 minute level and it plays a much lesser role in my decision making. For example, if the 13 reversed but the 34 maintained a strong trend I would close but not reverse my position, just wait for them both to be moving the same way again. But if the 34 were still falling but gradually flattening out, and the 13 turned up, then I would enter long even if the 2 MAs were not in agreement. I think this ambiguity in how I interpret the HULL 34 is what makes it so hard to code. I know that I also watch for how many bars close above or below the HULL 13 in anticipation of a change. This is also hard to specify in code. So as a manual system there is some interpretation going on, but very little. Even if I ignored the HULL 34, the 13 on its own would make money. You can easily check this by counting the number of points to be gained by following this method on any given day. The key for me was developing the discipline to always do what the chart was telling me to do. We are not here to predict the future, so forget about what what you think it’s about to do – forget about trendlines, forget about support and resistance, forget about job reports or war in the middle east, the ECB or all that macro-economic stuff that makes your head hurt. The chart already knows everything, so don’t agonize about it, don’t even think – just look at what the MA is truly actually doing right now – and do that. This is perhaps harder than it sounds and it takes some practice, but what you have in front of you is a graphic distillation of the collective opinions of thousands of traders from all over the world. If you just go with their consensus in real time then, by definition, you can never go wrong. I don’t mean that you will never place a losing trade, but the losses will be small. At the end of the day you will be well ahead, I promise. I hope that people find this useful. If you can master it, it’s a license to print money (yes, it truly is). If it could be successfully automated, that would be even better. I’ve made a number of attempts and it baffles me how well it works manually and how poorly this on its own works as an algo: //HULL 13 Period= 13 inner = 2*weightedaverage[round( Period/2)](typicalprice)-weightedaverage[Period](typicalprice) HULL = weightedaverage[round(sqrt(Period))](inner) c1 = HULL > HULL[1] and HULL[1]<HULL[2] c2 = HULL < HULL[1] and HULL[1]>HULL[2] This I is what I think I am doing, but maybe there’s more interpretation going on than I am aware of ?? visual clues I’m picking up on from experience that lead me to click a bar or 2 in advance of what the algo would do ?? I honestly don’t know, but hey, there’s a challenge for you. Best of luck! (although frankly, if you just do the above, luck is irrelevant)

This topic has 57 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by Jan.

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11/06/2020 at 10:58 PM #149734

XORANDNOT

I don’t get it. If it is a license to print money, why do you want to automate it ? You loose any kind of control, but give it away.

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11/07/2020 at 2:24 PM #149775

nonetheless

As i said above, if i were all that interested in automating i would have posted in the ProOrder forum. I should have made that clearer in my original post, esp the title.

I mostly wanted to share this as an approach to manual trading. Perhaps it’s not even a ‘system’ as such, more of an attitude. I’m using hull13 on a 2m chart, but prob other TFs and indicators would work as well.

For me the game changer was to stop trying to predict the market and instead just try to follow it. A subtle distinction that made a world of difference. It esp removed a lot of the fear factor of getting the entry wrong. If you’re just following a line the MA makes, you enter anywhere, knowing that if the line changes, you’re going with it – no problem. Hull MA is esp good for this as it is almost lag-free.

Having said that, I would greatly prefer not to be spending my days staring at charts on a screen. If it could be automated that would be great, but I don’t think it’s possible. It works because I am still bringing a level of interpretation that cannot be reduced to code.

Hope this helps.

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nonetheless
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11/07/2020 at 3:27 PM #149780

Sofitech

@nonetheless
Could youpost the code showing the arrow on your chart ?

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11/07/2020 at 7:01 PM #149793

nonetheless

not sure what you mean, there is no code, it’s an idea for manual trading. I posted a chart with potential entry points at the top of this thread, if that’s what you’re looking for.

nonetheless
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11/17/2020 at 12:15 PM #150771

snucke

very nice of you to share this!

do you use any type of stoploss? or do you only exit trades when hull13 turns to the other direction?

or do you factor this quoted from you to exit a trade?

“I know that I also watch for how many bars close above or below the HULL 13 in anticipation of a change. This is also hard to specify in code.”

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11/18/2020 at 10:48 PM #150901

ullle73

do you use the DOM when your trading? Or only hull and candles?

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11/19/2020 at 1:47 AM #150909

nonetheless

@ullle73, I don’t even know what DOM means, so I guess that’s a no, I don’t use it. 🤔

@snucke, no I don’t use stops. I used to, but I found that it created a negative sensation that a trade had failed. Then I’d feel miserable and have to step away from the screen for a bit. Meanwhile the price would fall 20 points but i wouldn’t get any of it because in my head I’m still fixed on the idea that it was ‘supposed’ to go up. If you’re just trying to follow the line, then every change of direction is an opportunity. The new mentality is not just closing a position because it’s losing, but reopening in the opposite direction because that is what’s going to win.

If I’m in profit then I don’t always wait for a change of direction, I’ll close when a candle starts falling below the line – usually where it drops below the previous low – but only go short when the MA changes colour.

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11/19/2020 at 10:40 AM #150937

ullle73

oh, DOM = Depth of market, orderflow.

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11/19/2020 at 12:19 PM #150950

TraderGlyn

I’ve used Hull for some time but been experimenting with this over the last week or so. FTSE seems to be most suited of the indices on 2m. DAX needs more testing on different TFs but appears promising. DOW is very difficult on the low Tfs due to sheer speed and volume of price but it does look very interesting and manageable on 10m or higher.

Do you still take positions when price is consolidating in a tight range and the Hull is changing direction every 5-10 pts or wait for clear direction or breakout?

Giving up the idea of predicting the future and going with flow is key I feel but so hard in practice. As you have said before it requires total focus and commitment, especially without stops!

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11/19/2020 at 3:53 PM #150979

nonetheless

In sideways consolidation phases I generally favour the HULL 34, ie enter on the Hull 13 signal but only where it’s in agreement with the Hull 34. Avoids a lot of the whipsaw.

Attached is another setup I’ve been trying on the DAX and NDQ – HULL 18 with a crossover of HULL 100 and 125. Green cloud = long only, red cloud = short only.

The HULL values I got from a ProOrder backtest – still won’t show a profit, but these were the numbers that worked best in auto.

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11/27/2020 at 2:53 PM #151922

Alby118

Thanks alot mate. Works perfect with other time frames and others…..just need make sure Spreads are tight.

To make a perfect trade almost everytime.

I duplicate 2TF chart (how you have described the setup) to 1TF and 5TF. HULL works great 1 and 5TF.

5TF to observe the smooth trend momentum, sold line red or green. Then 1TF to enter perfect. Benefit entering 1TF is that you get to enter before 2TF dots turn other color. Risk management is that you can get out quicker if 2TF turns,. The positve is your profits is greater as you have entered right at the beginning (judge by 1TF) before the color changes in 2MT. From there you observe 2TF and let it ride and take your profit.

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11/27/2020 at 3:01 PM #151923

GraHal

Yeah I’ve been manual trading using near enough exact same as above … with good results!

Are you talking manual above or Auto Trading?

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11/27/2020 at 3:09 PM #151924

Alby118

Manual

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12/01/2020 at 10:02 PM #152341

ullle73

alby118 or GraHal, could you post a picture of your template how you stack the charts with your indicators on?

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12/02/2020 at 11:37 AM #152400

GraHal

Wow I am forgetting how to work v10.3 already!!! 🙂

You won’t like my Workspace I’m sure!?

NO stacked Indicators, all on the Price Chart … Hull 13 and 34, Bollinger, SAR and SuperTrend (SAR and ST as confidence boost, but not strictly adhered to).

When the Hull 13 and 34 are all tangled up (as on attached) then don’t open a trade (same gig as the Williams Alligator).

https://www.prorealcode.com/prorealtime-indicators/bill-williams-alligator/

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PLermite

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