Live performance updates for PRC Marketplace strategy: High Probability Reversal

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  • This topic has 172 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by avatarjuanj.
Viewing 15 posts - 136 through 150 (of 173 total)
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  • 09/01/2022 at 1:50 PM #200021
    garyoaten

    Hi Juan.

    Did the FX version you run have 43 trades in 6 weeks? I backtested mine and it was about that for 6 months?

     

    Regards,

     

    Gary

    09/01/2022 at 3:59 PM #200025
    phoentzs

    Unfortunately, the performance values ​​no longer have anything to do with the version when the strategy was new.

    09/01/2022 at 5:27 PM #200036
    garyoaten

    Does the GBPUSD version place a stop loss straight away? I have a position opened and its 15-20 pips in profit but no SL or target has been placed?

     

    Regards,

     

    Gary

    09/01/2022 at 6:48 PM #200037
    juanj
    Both targets and stops are rule based meaning it is managed within the code and trades will exit when the respective price action conditions for either TP or SL is reached.
    The strategy will also attempt to lock in profit using a custom trailing stop (coded into the rules) should the market move sufficiently into profit.
    @garyoaten please send me an email with your backtest results so I can investigate your result.
    09/19/2022 at 6:28 PM #201052
    virus010

    Hello Juan,

    can you please post a table with all Gold-Strategy LIVE results (% winning trades, gain/loss ratio, max drawdown in %) month over month.

    Thank you

    11/01/2022 at 11:27 AM #203348
    phoentzs

    Is there a new update on the performance of the strategy?

    11/01/2022 at 11:45 AM #203349
    juanj

    Unfortunately there has been no updates as the strategy has not taken much trades in a long time.

    Attached is the latest Live results. Still hoping for opportunity as we head into year-end.

    11/01/2022 at 1:34 PM #203356
    phoentzs

    I’ve already noticed that the strategy hasn’t been going well for the last few months.. I hope you have a solution.

    11/01/2022 at 5:47 PM #203368
    phoentzs

    I don’t want to be negative. But in Germany, 25% capital gains tax is immediately deducted from the profit, while a loss is lost completely, i.e. WITHOUT offsetting a tax. So I need at least a win-loss ratio of 1.25 to even have plus minus 0. At 1.09 as a ratio over the past few months, I’m only making a loss no matter if there’s another strong month ahead. Thus, this type of strategy is not tradable. Sorry, I bought a strategy that was advertised as a ratio of 1.73.

    11/01/2022 at 6:12 PM #203371
    PeterSt

    Emigrate ?
    😉

    11/01/2022 at 6:27 PM #203373
    PeterSt
    phoentzs wrote:

    in Germany, 25% capital gains tax is immediately deducted from the profit, while a loss is lost completely, i.e. WITHOUT offsetting a tax. So I need at least a win-loss ratio of 1.25 to even have plus minus 0.

    I would say that if you have a gain/profit of 25% (your 1.25 ratio, right ?) that the tax you pay over that gain is 25 % from thus 25% profit. Thus :

    Investment is 100. Profit is 25. Pay tax of 6.25.

    So I would say that any profit is profitable. Even 1.01 would be. But, the 1.01 would require to be the minimum average (net) profit (have one loss of 10% and it requires 10 trades with a profit of 1 and you still have profit (of 25% of 1)).

    I am no tax expert – I only don’t like to pay tax – so maybe I am wrong. 🙂

    11/01/2022 at 6:36 PM #203375
    juanj

    Those are indeed some harsh CGT rules. In our country it is capped at 18% and it can be offset by losses. Every country will be different and trying to build a trading strategy to overcome 25% tax (notwithstanding losses) will be very difficult.

    • Obviously (and unfortunatley) there are no guarantees in trading and/or investing in the stock market, anyone with real experience in the market knows this. Therefore it would be unrealistic to expect a consistent win-loss ratio as some months/years will inevitably be better/worse than others
    • I have been running and testing this strategy for over 2 years and the fact that it is positive (even if only slightly so) testifies to a very real and solid edge, which I still have confidence in.
    • The specific market inefficiency the strategy relies on can only be exploited when it is present, and this evidently depends a lot on seasonality. I cannot change or force this, it simply needs time.
    • Keep in mind that even the top investment firmstypically employing multiple ‘experts’ with masters degrees and PhD’s in economics and finance cannot guarantee you returns. In fact even finding funds with positive YTD returns is a rarity lately. I have been trading on a full-time basis for many years and I as well as many other full-time traders (who is willing to be honest) can testify that these last few months have been exceptionally difficult to trade.
    • Let’s wait and see how the year ends. Without patience it will be impossible to achieve success in trading.
    11/01/2022 at 7:57 PM #203388
    phoentzs

    @juanj

    I don’t want to badmouth anything. It’s all ok. Only gentle criticism. I know it is a difficult and extraordinary year.


    @PeterSt

    I can get the tax back by offsetting losses… with the annual tax return, so next year. But what trader wants to wait that long? If I calculate correctly, in the current year.

    A strategy with a hit rate of 50% and a ratio of 1.01

    a profit of 100 euros

    75 euros come to my account

    a loss of 99 euros

    99 euros are missing

    the whole thing adds up to -24 euros on my account

    11/01/2022 at 8:49 PM #203389
    snucke

    it does not work like that, u cumulate all the profits and all the losses of ALL trades then u tax on what you have gained.

    so lets say you do 100 trades and your total gain is 900 and total loss i 800 then 900-800=100*0,75=75 dollar

     

    11/04/2022 at 10:54 AM #203508
    SnorreDK

    Hi Juanj. I am looking to buy/rent 1 algo. The algo should have consistently good results historically (OOS).

     

    It should have been live more than 6 months. which algo should I hire? tell and show oos results.

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