Live performance updates for PRC Marketplace strategy: High Probability Reversal

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  • This topic has 172 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by avatarjuanj.
Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 173 total)
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  • 08/30/2021 at 7:18 AM #176459
    juanj

    Apologies I did indeed attach the wrong screenshot! Attached is the correct one.

    09/06/2021 at 8:01 PM #176900
    phoentzs

    Hello Juanj, last trade war on August 19th? Can you confirm it? Sorry, wrong language.

    09/08/2021 at 3:12 PM #177025
    juanj

    That is 100% correct the strategy was specifically designed to only  take high probability scenarios and will wait very patiently until they occur. This is obviously cyclical and during some market phases there will be more opportunities and other times less. But the most important consideration for this strategy is to protect capital and manage risk aggressively by only exploiting those high probability setups. Patience is key and will be rewarded in the long run.

    09/08/2021 at 3:55 PM #177028
    phoentzs

    Very nice. Just wanted to be on the safe side.

    09/08/2021 at 6:44 PM #177039
    Eric

    This backtest that show a profit of 8 214

    How many contracts was the max exposure? 40?

    09/09/2021 at 11:06 AM #177124
    juanj

    Hi Eric, the strategy works by taking up to 3 (in some extreme cases up to 4) attempts at trading a specific high-probability mean reversion event.

    So depending on how many contracts the multiplier is set it will open up to 4 x (the multiplier variable) contracts. In the case of the screenshot, the multiplier was set to 10.

    09/25/2021 at 10:38 AM #178365
    juanj

    Unfortunately September has so far resulted in a drawdown month primarily due to the very aggressive sell-off caused by surprisingly positive US economic data that created large institutional inefficiencies leaving the algo trading against these institutional moves on the 16th. If you aren’t familiar with smart money and institutional trading concepts you can have a look at my latest indicator here: Smart Money Indicator – ProRealCode Market

    The Smart Money indicator actually highlighted this inefficiency which was subsequently closed after price revisited the area (see screenshot attached). The algo was actually just one trade attempt away from catching the recovery. The bright side is I will see this as an opportunity to improve the algo using smart money concepts and will hopefully have an updated version available early next month.

    But despite the recent drawdown the algo is already re-gaining some of the losses and when looking at the overall picture is still in-line with historical performance.

     

    2 users thanked author for this post.
    avatar Nicolas, avatar GraHal
    11/01/2021 at 3:55 PM #180752
    phoentzs

    October doesn’t look any better … I have been losing money continuously for 2.5 months with this strategy …


    @juanj     do you have a solution for the problem?

    11/01/2021 at 4:51 PM #180756
    JS

    I don’t think this is the right way to rate a product from the Marketplace.

    When you buy a product you know what the consequences can be.

    Use the product for a longer period of time and then place a review of the product on the Marketplace so that everyone who is interested in the product can read this review.

    11/01/2021 at 4:55 PM #180757
    phoentzs

    I thought about writing here for a long time. Isn’t meant bad either. I paid money for this bot and so far only made losses. That’s why I wanted to ask where the problem is. I mean, the market is the problem, it always is.

    11/01/2021 at 6:21 PM #180762
    juanj

    Hi Everyone, I don’t mind you sharing your feedback here. Attached is the latest Live results and yes the last 2.5 months has not been great, although this is due to the loss on 16-Sep (which I addressed) in my previous post. Since then the strategy has in fact had a profitable October as you can see. I should have an update available by the end of this month that should prevent losses such as happened on the 16th of September. Overall I am still happy with the strategy and running it live in my portfolio.

    11/01/2021 at 6:35 PM #180765
    Paolo.B
    phoentzs wrote:

    I thought about writing here for a long time. Isn’t meant bad either. I paid money for this bot and so far only made losses. That’s why I wanted to ask where the problem is. I mean, the market is the problem, it always is.

    You are right the problem is always the market, a great algorithm should prevent these losses in difficult times.
    Of course, in 7 months “116 dollars” which is 100 euros, costs 399 € it takes more than two years to pay for the algorithm.
    However, I also think that all algorithms need more time to be judged and if you are not satisfied you should put your review on MarketPlace to be able to help all possible new buyers.

     

    11/01/2021 at 7:21 PM #180766
    juanj

    Do remember that although you only see a 116 euro profit over 7-months this is based on minimum contract sizes as I need to run and test many systems with my available capital. For someone else (with 10x exposure) it would have been over a thousand euros. Based on my 1000 euro capital exposure for this contract size it is still a double digit (11.6%) return in 7-months (which includes that drawdown).

    As with many new traders I also don’t see trading as a get rich quick scheme but rather a long term play meant to outperform typical investments over a running 12-month period. I have been doing this for 7 years.

     

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    avatar dfaz60
    11/01/2021 at 7:44 PM #180771
    phoentzs

    I didn’t mean to annoy you Juanj. It’s all OK. I’m just a little worried. Perhaps there is a possibility / filter to avoid such major losses or to get out beforehand?

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    avatar dfaz60
    11/01/2021 at 8:49 PM #180774
    juanj

    It is all good as long as we can all agree that drawdowns will always happen at some point (with any strategy) and unfortunately if you start a strategy just before a drawdown it will be hard compared to someone who started a strategy just after a drawdown. But this is trading and we all know the risks 🙂

    Like I said 11.6% return with a drawdown really is not bad for 7-months and I would be more than satisfied with ~25% for a rolling 12-month period (as is my target).

    Regarding improvements to the strategy; I refer to my post #178365 where I mentioned I will update and enhance the strategy using my Smart Money Indicator – ProRealCode Market

    The accuracy of this indicator is astonishing and although it is not easy to do I look forward to having this incorporated into the strategy.

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