Mother of Dragons trading strategy…

• 05/02/2020 at 1:24 PM #129405
  GraHal

  nonetheless wrote:

  Never add to a losing position

  I agree, but something I do is if I have a loser and I judge that price is going back up (vice versa for shorts) then I would buy same lot size so I get back to breakeven or very small loss in half the price distance it took to lose (and hopefully before I go to bed! 🙂 )

  Works surprisingly often!

   

  

  GraHal

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  05/02/2020 at 1:48 PM #129409
  nonetheless

  Yes, I confess I sometimes do that too, in manual trading. Hard to resist the temptation of maybe getting out of a stinker at breakeven. I think the question you have to ask is, ‘if I didn’t have an open position, would I buy here?’ If the answer is a confident Yes, then averaging down can be a good tactic. At least manually you have full control over the extra risk. But it would take some v clever coding to get it right in an algo.

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  swedshare

  

  nonetheless

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  05/02/2020 at 7:44 PM #129503
  Moda

  Here a Dax version with BreakEven fonction, no modifications with the main MTF values

  It’s far from the original version in terms of performances i just adapted it to my needs…

  Thanks @nonetheless

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  cgassfr67, ArnoldB, eckaw, Scooby, GraHal, Sebastian Arsjo, bertrandpinoy, nonetheless

  

  Moda

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  05/03/2020 at 1:15 AM #129512
  eckaw

  Here’s my adaptation to @Moda version above – with added @JuanJ ML (to adjust sl / pt) and @Paul ML (to adjust StartBreakevenLong/Short) including @Vonasi MM. Improved win rate and less losing trades.

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  cgassfr67, Jabezz, Paul, keewee, Francesco, GraHal, ArnoldB, Sebastian Arsjo, Scooby

  

  eckaw

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  05/03/2020 at 1:16 AM #129514
  eckaw

  backtest results for the above.

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  ArnoldB, Moda

  

  eckaw

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  05/03/2020 at 9:08 AM #129520
  deleted03052020

  Hi eckaw,

  Im new and trying to learn to program in prc. What do I need to remove to get it working because I dont know what to remove from backtest code to make it work.

  

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  05/03/2020 at 10:51 AM #129541
  GraHal

  eckaw wrote:

  Here’s my adaptation

  I can’t wait until tomorrow to try these last 2 versions … even if they are only half as good as the backtest  … they should be winners!!?? 🙂

  Thank You @Moda and @eckaw for being magnanimous and sharing with us all!

  Thanks also to JuanJ, Paul and Vonasi and Nonetheless for the original MoD strategy, and Jan and Laurenzo for the original 69 MA definitions.

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  Moda

  

  GraHal

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  05/03/2020 at 10:56 AM #129543
  Francesco

  The ML version is very interesting, also reduces all the noise of the little profit trades. What if applied on the original trailing stop version and not on the less performing breakeven one?

  

  Francesco

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  05/03/2020 at 12:47 PM #129548
  snucke

  How come i get these results on  MoD-Dax-4.x ML

  look at the DD from dec 27 2019, its huuuge… just me that thinks this is not ready to live?

  

  snucke

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  05/03/2020 at 1:05 PM #129550
  GraHal

  snucke wrote:

  just me that thinks this is not ready to live?

  We all check out Systems on Demo Live / Forward Test for a certain number of trades / ups and downs period in price levels etc.

  Unless there are other folk like me, who like the excitement of putting a System Real Live following good backtests / walk forward etc?

  BUT I would always then watch each and every trade like a hawk and would only do above if I was sitting at my desk doing other tasks on one monitor whilst the trade develops on No 2 monitor in my peripheral vision.

  I might then exit a trade / close the System down within a few seconds or when it reaches a logical exit point which may not be  catered for by the coded strategy.

  I don’t see above as any more risky than manual trading?  But if you are not comfortable manual trading then don’t do above! 🙂

  EDIT / PS

  There’s an even bigger drawdown on 13 March … see attached.

  

  GraHal

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  05/03/2020 at 1:45 PM #129564
  snucke

  my point was that it wasnt even a point in putting it on demo whit this huge drawdowns with no protection at all..

  the point of automatic systems is to not have to look at the monitor all the time.

  if u want to trade manual then just have the system as an alert?

  

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  05/03/2020 at 2:08 PM #129568
  GraHal

  snucke wrote:

  with no protection at all..

  Are you able to do anything to improve the System to get it more to what you would like?

  

  GraHal

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  05/03/2020 at 2:09 PM #129569
  nonetheless

  Hi @eckaw, I think there’s an error at line 421 – should be HeuristicsAlgo4, no?

  Also, testing should be really done with MM switched off, so line 43 needs to be MM2ndType = 0

  Nice work with the ML application, are you sure there’s no crosstalk between them?

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  eckaw

  

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  05/03/2020 at 2:10 PM #129570
  MrCool

  eckaw wrote:

  backtest results for the above.

  I do not get the same results as you with the original ML code, did you optimize more? Spread?

  

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  05/03/2020 at 2:16 PM #129576
  nonetheless

  Also, @vonasi produced a more sophisticated version of that MM code, if you’re interested – includes a fuse to quit the algo if x% DD:

  Capital = 10000 MinSize = 1 //The minimum position size allowed for the instrument. MM1stType = 0 //Starting type of moneymanagement. Set to 0 for level stakes. Set to 1 for increasing stake size as profits increase and decreasing stake size as profits decrease. Set to 2 for increasing stake size as profits increase with stake size never being decreased. MM2ndType = 1 //Type of money management to switch to after TradesQtyForSwitch number of trades and ProfitNeededForSwitch profit has occurred TradesQtyForSwitch = 50 //Quantity of trades required before switching to second money management choice. ProfitNeededForSwitch = 3 //% profit needed before allowing a money management type change to MM2ndType. DrawdownNeededToSwitch = 3 //% draw down from max equity needed before money management type is changed back to MM1stType. DrawdownNeededToQuit = 35 //% draw down from max equity needed to stop strategy Once MoneyManagement = MM1stType Equity = Capital + StrategyProfit maxequity = max(equity,maxequity) if equity < maxequity * (1 - (DrawdownNeededToSwitch/100)) then enoughtrades = 0 tradecount = 0 moneymanagement = MM1stType endif if equity < maxequity * (1 - (DrawdownNeededToQuit/100)) then quit endif if not EnoughTrades then if abs(countofposition) > abs(countofposition[1]) then tradecount = tradecount + 1 endif if tradecount > TradesQtyForSwitch and maxequity >= Capital * (1 + (ProfitNeededForSwitch/100)) then EnoughTrades = 1 MoneyManagement = MM2ndType endif endif IF MoneyManagement = 1 THEN PositionSize = Max(MinSize, Equity * (MinSize/Capital)) ENDIF IF MoneyManagement = 2 THEN PositionSize = Max(LastSize, Equity * (MinSize/Capital)) LastSize = PositionSize ENDIF IF MoneyManagement <> 1 and MoneyManagement <> 2 THEN PositionSize = MinSize ENDIF PositionSize = Round(PositionSize*100) PositionSize = PositionSize/100 // Size of POSITIONS PositionSizeLong = 1 * positionsize PositionSizeShort = 1 * positionsize

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  Capital = 10000 MinSize = 1                 //The minimum position size allowed for the instrument. MM1stType = 0               //Starting type of moneymanagement. Set to 0 for level stakes. Set to 1 for increasing stake size as profits increase and decreasing stake size as profits decrease. Set to 2 for increasing stake size as profits increase with stake size never being decreased. MM2ndType = 1               //Type of money management to switch to after TradesQtyForSwitch number of trades and ProfitNeededForSwitch profit has occurred TradesQtyForSwitch = 50    //Quantity of trades required before switching to second money management choice. ProfitNeededForSwitch = 3   //% profit needed before allowing a money management type change to MM2ndType. DrawdownNeededToSwitch = 3 //% draw down from max equity needed before money management type is changed back to MM1stType. DrawdownNeededToQuit = 35   //% draw down from max equity needed to stop strategy Once MoneyManagement = MM1stType Equity = Capital + StrategyProfit maxequity = max(equity,maxequity) if equity < maxequity * (1 - (DrawdownNeededToSwitch/100)) then enoughtrades = 0 tradecount = 0 moneymanagement = MM1stType endif if equity < maxequity * (1 - (DrawdownNeededToQuit/100)) then quit endif if not EnoughTrades then if abs(countofposition) > abs(countofposition[1]) then tradecount = tradecount + 1 endif if tradecount > TradesQtyForSwitch and maxequity >= Capital * (1 + (ProfitNeededForSwitch/100)) then EnoughTrades = 1 MoneyManagement = MM2ndType endif endif IF MoneyManagement = 1 THEN PositionSize = Max(MinSize, Equity * (MinSize/Capital)) ENDIF IF MoneyManagement = 2 THEN PositionSize = Max(LastSize, Equity * (MinSize/Capital)) LastSize = PositionSize ENDIF IF MoneyManagement <> 1 and MoneyManagement <> 2 THEN PositionSize = MinSize ENDIF PositionSize = Round(PositionSize*100) PositionSize = PositionSize/100 // Size of POSITIONS PositionSizeLong = 1 * positionsize PositionSizeShort = 1 * positionsize

   

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  eckaw

  

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